Ok, so in my universe there are only so many important convention. First, since I'm on the East Coast of the US, the cons on the west coast are pretty much right out. This is a shame because my favorite convention in the universe - Ambercon Northwest - takes place outside of Portland, and it also means the various Endgame minicons are of the table. So it goes.
There are also some smaller cons that I make a priority of, notably Dexcon and Dreamation up in New Jersey. I like the atmosphere, I like the people, and they're an opportunity to play, so they go in their own bucket.
But beyond those are the big deal cons, and historically they've been Origins, Gencon and Dragoncon. The classic advice is that you go to Origins to play (or to see people), Gencon to sell and Dragoncon to drink. That might be a bit of an exaggeration, but I've found it holds up.
When PAX (now PAX Prime) showed up, it didn't really shake things up too much. From my perspective as a tabletop gamer, it was mostly in a different sphere, absorbing the debris of E3. People came back from it with reports of an excellent convention and a broad range of nerdery, and that was nice, but didn't move my needle much. Even if it became a bigger hub for tabletop, its position on the West Coast put it out of my sphere.
But then came PAX East, and things got upended. People came back with stories of a geek mecca, full of video games and technology, yes, but also hours of fun for other members of the geek tribe. And Luke Crane and the Burning Wheel guys reported sales numbers in the Gencon range. I was super curious, as was Fred, so our trip up this year was sort of dual purpose. First, we wanted to go and have an awesome time (we did!) but we also wanted to know if this was something we might want to look at from a business perspective, maybe doing a booth or the like.
As a company, Evil Hat hasn't yet made any decisions, so don't read this as me speaking for that, but I definitely have some personal impressions.
When I can only go to one summer con, I will generally choose Origins. This is not much of a business decision. Origins sales are anemic and it's not a great place for a new release. It is, however, a wonderful convention for seeing people and enjoying their company along with excellent food and atmosphere. Gencon is more work - it's bigger and it's a better sales opportunity, but I find the time to sit and talk needs to be taken in stolen moments and out of the way corners. If I had a big new release, Gencon is probably the right choice for it, but otherwise...
Don't get me wrong. Gencon is a great experience. It's the biggest collection of the tabletop tribes I know of, and if you're willing to put in the work to deal with scheduling, then it can be an incredibly full convention of basically non-stop activity. It's got a great seminar track (maybe the best in gaming) and it's the place that gaming companies are likely to make releases and announcements. But it is very much the meeting of the tribes.
PAX East (and I presume PAX Prime) is a different beast. It's the convention of the broader geek nation, and that means less uniformity, but it also means fewer dividing lines. The people who come to Gencon and buy your stuff because they know it's going to be there. The people at PAX buy your stuff because they _don't_. They are open to the idea of your game, but not married to a lot of the baggage around it.
To me, that's pretty freaking fantastic. And it's a reason that, as a publisher, I definitely want to have some sort of presence at PAX, even if it's just one among many at the IPR booth. For all that it's a sales avenue, it is an even more powerful marketing avenue. We like to talk about growing the hobby and reaching new people, and I genuinely am unsure if there's a better way to do it.
But that's also scary. Thinking about showing games at PAX reminds me of exactly how much we take for granted when we sell within the established community. There's a lot you don't need to do when you are selling to the converted. And as such, there's a reasons that did well are the ones with a rock-solid demo-centric ethos (most notably Steve Jackson Games and the Burning Wheel folks). PAX is a con that gives you the chance to show that your game is awesome, but isn't going to take your word for it.
But all that's through the lens of a publisher. As a player and a nerd, I can't imagine skipping the next PAX. The fun is just there, lying on the ground, waiting to be picked up. At Gencon (and even Origins) I feel like I miss out on a lot of stuff because I'm not in the right place at the right time. PAX felt like all places and times were right.
Bottom line -PAX isn't going to replace Gencon anytime soon. The cons have different priorities and needs, and frankly, I think it would be utterly toxic to PAX to try to absorb too much tabletop. But PAX is raising the bar for Gencon and other big conventions, especially in terms of quality of experience, and it is shaping up as a critical marketing opportunity for game companies. Even if it doesn't go on your calendar, it's going to be the con to watch.